Blackout, a national security threat

The recent power outage affecting 17 northern Nigerian states highlights critical vulnerabilities in the nation’s power infrastructure, with profound implications for national security, economic stability, and public health. From October, millions of Nigerians across key states, including Kano, Sokoto, Kaduna, and Zamfara, were plunged into darkness following an attack on the national power grid. While the Federal Government has promised to restore power by mid-November, this crisis reflects chronic failures in Nigeria’s power sector, demanding an urgent, multifaceted response that goes beyond temporary fixes.

The root causes of the current blackout stem from decades of neglect and persistent vandalism of Nigeria’s power infrastructure. According to the Transmission Company of Nigeria, over 200 incidents of vandalism on high-voltage transmission lines have been reported across the nation over the past five years. Vandals primarily target power towers for valuable components like steel and copper, which are sold on the black market. Recently, incidents have escalated, with vandals now allegedly demanding ransom payments to prevent further attacks, a troubling trend that suggests organised crime has infiltrated the power sector.

This surge in attacks underlines the severe lack of security around Nigeria’s power grid, especially in remote areas. Without surveillance or regular maintenance, the grid remains vulnerable, often leading to outages that disrupt livelihoods and threaten national security. Additionally, transmission towers and substations are isolated, which makes them susceptible to attacks that go undetected for days or even weeks. This isolation is aggravated by a lack of technological investments, including basic surveillance tools, which makes monitoring these extensive assets challenging.

The economic impact of the ongoing blackout has been devastating. Power outages are estimated to cost Nigeria’s economy around $29bn annually, equating to approximately 2 per cent of the nation’s GDP. In northern Nigeria, where economic activity is already strained by insecurity and limited infrastructure, this blackout further compounds the hardship. According to recent estimates from the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture, industries in the affected states have reported a 60 per cent decline in productivity since the blackout began.
The agricultural sector, a major economic driver in northern Nigeria, has been particularly hard-hit. Cold storage facilities, which are essential for preserving perishable goods, are no longer operational in many areas, leading to food spoilage and loss of revenue. Small businesses, many of which lack backup generators, have also been severely impacted, with several unable to operate due to the lack of electricity. These disruptions threaten the region’s economic stability, pushing an already vulnerable population deeper into poverty.

The blackout has exacerbated security challenges in northern Nigeria, where insurgency and banditry already undermine peace and stability. Darkness has created opportunities for criminals to carry out their activities with less risk of detection. In areas controlled by insurgents, security forces are struggling to maintain surveillance and intelligence-gathering operations are hampered by the lack of power. According to security analysts, the blackout has worsened the security landscape, making it easier for armed groups to move undetected and conduct their activities with minimal interference from law enforcement.

This issue has exposed serious deficiencies in Nigeria’s approach to critical infrastructure protection. The Department of State Services and other security agencies have struggled to provide timely intelligence to prevent or respond to these attacks on power infrastructure, suggesting a need for better coordination and strategic planning. The prolonged blackout underscores the need for a new security framework focused specifically on infrastructure, as is the case in other nations where power grids are deemed national security assets.
Safeguarding Nigeria’s power infrastructure requires a collective approach, including community involvement. Residents in areas near power lines and substations are often the first to notice suspicious activities, and empowering them with a reliable mechanism to report potential vandalism could make a significant difference. Community vigilance programmes, which have been successfully implemented in other countries facing similar challenges, could offer Nigeria a model for harnessing local support to protect its power grid.

Establishing a whistleblower programme with clear protections and incentives could motivate citizens to alert authorities about suspicious activities. The government should also provide a hotline for reporting such activities and deploy outreach programmes to educate communities about the importance of safeguarding infrastructure. In Kenya, similar community-based surveillance programmes have been effective in reducing vandalism of power infrastructure by over 30 per cent, according to a report from the Kenyan Energy Regulatory Commission.

Beyond community engagement, Nigeria must invest in modern technologies to secure its power grid. Advanced surveillance systems, including drone patrols, closed-circuit cameras, and even satellite monitoring, can help detect and deter vandalism. In 2020, South Africa faced a similar challenge with infrastructure sabotage, which prompted the government to install high-tech surveillance equipment on critical infrastructure. Since then, incidents of vandalism have dropped by 40 per cent, according to the South African Department of Public Enterprises.
In Nigeria’s case, the deployment of drones for regular monitoring of remote areas could offer a practical solution. Additionally, smart grid technologies could alert operators to potential disruptions in real-time, allowing for quicker responses to incidents. These systems, while requiring initial investment, could save Nigeria billions in the long run by reducing the frequency and severity of outages.

Nigeria’s national grid is overly centralised, meaning that disruptions in one region often lead to widespread outages. This crisis highlights the urgent need to decentralise the power grid, enabling each region to operate independently and minimize the impact of localised failures. In the United States and Europe, decentralised power grids with microgrids have proven effective in enhancing grid resilience. Microgrids can operate independently of the main grid and can continue to supply power in the event of a national grid failure.

For northern Nigeria, which has abundant solar resources, investing in solar mini-grids could provide a sustainable solution to the region’s power challenges. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, northern Nigeria receives an average of six hours of peak sunlight daily, making it ideal for solar power. By building and supporting mini-grids in these areas, the government can reduce the region’s dependence on the national grid and enhance resilience against grid disruptions.

The prolonged blackout raises questions about leadership in the power sector. Despite repeated grid collapses and mounting challenges, the current Minister of Power has retained his position. In light of these failures, it is time for President Bola Tinubu’s administration to consider appointing a new leader with the expertise and vision to address Nigeria’s power sector challenges. Transparency and accountability should be central to any leadership change, ensuring that the chosen candidate has the necessary experience and commitment to bring about meaningful reform.
The government must also declare a state of emergency on critical infrastructure. This would enable a more flexible allocation of resources to repair and protect essential assets. A state of emergency could accelerate decision-making processes, streamline funding, and foster partnerships with private sector stakeholders who can bring expertise and capital to infrastructure projects. For instance, Egypt’s government collaborated with private investors to upgrade its grid in recent years, reducing power outages by nearly 70 per cent.

Northern state governments have also been largely absent in developing local power solutions. The ongoing blackout reveals a failure to capitalise on the region’s natural resources, such as sunlight, which could fuel solar power projects. Some state governments in southern Nigeria, such as Lagos, have launched independent power initiatives, successfully improving their energy security. Northern states should follow this example, investing in local solar and wind power projects that can mitigate reliance on the national grid.

By actively investing in renewable energy projects, northern states can create jobs, attract investment, and reduce their vulnerability to power outages. These initiatives would also lessen the demand on the national grid, freeing up capacity for other regions.

The blackout in northern Nigeria should serve as a wake-up call to the entire nation. It is a stark reminder of the consequences of neglect, poor infrastructure, and weak security frameworks around critical national assets. This crisis presents an opportunity to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to energy security, ensuring that power infrastructure is protected, resilient, and capable of supporting a modern economy.

To achieve this, Nigeria must invest in technology, decentralise its power grid, and prioritise infrastructure security. The government should act swiftly, replacing ineffective leadership and implementing policies that encourage community involvement, transparency, and private sector engagement. By addressing the root causes of the current crisis, Nigeria can build a more resilient power sector, strengthening its economy and safeguarding its citizens for generations to come.